The Realist Case for Palestinian Statehood

The Realist Case for Palestinian Statehood

United States national security depends on the creation of an independent Palestinian state.

(Demonstrators waving the Palestinian flag outside the U.N. Headquarters in New York City. | SOURCE: VIEWpress / Kena Betancur)

American involvement in the Middle East has become one of the great punchlines of modern politics, with a historical foundation going back to the 1948 Arab-Israeli War. Yet, the characterization of American Middle East interventionism as a negative stereotype truly arose following the 2003 invasion of Iraq. In this stereotype, the central motivator is oil, and the American desire to control the region’s abundant supply. 

However, this is no longer an accurate idea. The reality is that U.S. national security is contingent on Middle Eastern political stability, something that the creation of an independent Palestinian state would greatly enhance.

The U.S. is less reliant on Middle Eastern oil than it has been at any point in the last three decades. The percentage of American oil imports coming from the region was a mere 10.8% in 2024, while the U.S. is now a net exporter of petroleum. Instead, the Middle East retains its strategic importance primarily due to its instability and tendency to export violence globally. 

Even as every 21st-century U.S. president, from George W. Bush to Donald Trump, has sought to pivot away from the region, their inability to quell the threat of violence has made this goal unattainable. A primary driver behind this impotence is the continued stateless status of the Palestinian people, which stokes significant anti-American sentiments and anger throughout the region. 

However, U.S. policy has consistently been blind to this barrier, and unconditional American support for Israel, lacking an effective drive for a two-state solution since the Clinton administration, only exacerbates the issue. Analyzing regional undercurrents leads to one inevitable conclusion: the lack of a Palestinian state undermines U.S. national security. Establishing one should be a priority for the U.S. in the Middle East.

The primary reason why statehood is so vital to U.S. national security is popular opinion in the Arab world, which has an enormous impact on regional politics. According to a study conducted by The Arab Center in Washington, D.C., during the Gaza War, 92 percent of Arabs considered the Palestinian cause to be “a cause for all Arabs, not the Palestinian people alone.” Additionally, 82 percent of respondents believed that the U.S. position on the War in Gaza is “very bad.” 

These views allow for violent militias across the region to make use of the Palestinian issue to garner popular support that they would otherwise not have, empowering American adversaries. A perfect example is the Houthis in Yemen, who have had their domestic support significantly strengthened by their vocal opposition to Israel. Following the Israeli assault on Gaza that began in 2023, the Houthis started launching attacks against shipping in the Red Sea, and even against Israel itself. This move crippled global supply chains, reducing shipping through the Red Sea by over 50% from 2023 to 2024. 

These attacks, and the pro-Palestinian rhetoric the Houthis espouse, significantly strengthen their domestic standing, even as Yemen faces profound economic and humanitarian crises that they are incapable of addressing. U.S. attempts over the past two years to target the Houthis militarily only exacerbated the issue, failing to truly destroy Houthi offensive capabilities while reinforcing Houthi claims of American villainy.

Numerous other militant groups throughout the region, including Hezbollah, Hamas, and a network of smaller Shiite militias across Iraq, hold opposition to Israel and the U.S. as their raison d'être. These groups are all arms of the Iranian-funded “Axis of Resistance," which seeks to counter Israeli and American influence in the region. 

While the foundation of a Palestinian state is unlikely to temper Iranian opposition to Israel, it would undercut Iran’s ability to rebuild its scattered axis. Hezbollah and Hamas, in particular, are both in retreat after years of direct conflict with Israel. Both would struggle to re-emerge as major powers should a Palestinian state materialize, because much of their support is contingent on anger against Israel for its continued oppression of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. 

Additionally, violent groups, such as al-Qaeda and ISIS, although not explicitly dedicated to the liberation of Palestinians, use the issue to justify their actions. In his widely circulated “Letter to the American People,” Osama bin Laden listed American support for Israel and the oppression of Palestinians as primary justifications for his Jihad against the U.S. Using antisemitic rhetoric, bin Laden advocates for the ethnic cleansing of Jewish Israelis, a goal that is morally abhorrent, wholly incompatible with American values and interests, and threatens the safety of the Jewish people globally. 

However, the violent oppression of Palestinians only increases popular support for hateful sentiments like those espoused by bin Laden. A peaceful solution that affirms the rights of both Israelis and Palestinians to self-determination is the best way to undercut such violent rhetoric. 

Beyond creating the conditions for extremist militant groups to form, the popular consensus in favor of Palestinian liberation also destabilizes American partners in the region. Something that flew under the radar during the Twelve-Day War between Israel, the U.S. and Iran was increasing instability in Jordan, one of the most critical U.S. regional partners and a vital ally in the fight against terrorism. However, Jordan's tacit support for Israel and the U.S. has led to a marked increase in domestic resistance, and even potential concerns for the future of the current political regime. 

(Jordanians protest in solidarity with Gaza outside the U.S. embassy in late 2023. | SOURCE: Getty Images / Khalil Mazraawi)

Fears that Israel may annex the West Bank are particularly prominent among many Jordanians. A destabilized Jordan should be a significant concern for the U.S., which relied heavily on Jordan’s intelligence services and military in the fight against ISIS during the 2010s, as journalist Joby Warick insightfully describes in Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS.

Despite all this, however, American policy in the region has consistently ignored the Palestinian question, only instigating extremism and violence. The Trump-brokered Abraham Accords and President Biden’s follow-up work toward Israel-Saudi normalization both largely ignored the Palestinian question. Consequently, they served as primary motivations for Hamas’ October 7th attack. Until a legitimate Palestinian state is established, other attempts at regional stabilization will continue to fail. 

To be clear, mere recognition of Palestinian statehood, as Britain, France, and Canada have stated as their intention, is not enough. The U.S. must assume a leadership role in taking concrete steps towards creating a legitimate and functional state. 

These measures will undoubtedly be unpopular in Israel, where only 36% of the population would support the creation of a Palestinian state, even if it led to a long-term peace and Israeli-Saudi normalization. Many in Israel believe that Palestinian statehood will threaten Israel’s right to exist. However, without a Palestinian state, Israel will be mired in endless wars with its neighbors and myriad militant groups, as it has been since its founding. 

Nonetheless, Israel is unlikely to cooperate with measures to establish Palestinian sovereignty right away. So, to protect its own regional interests, the U.S. must use its considerable leverage to force Israel’s hand.

The U.S. is in a unique position globally, as the only country able to make a Palestinian state a reality. The U.S. provides Israel with 78 percent of its foreign arms imports, and gave Israel $12.5 billion of military aid in 2024 alone. Additionally, the U.S. stands as the sole veto on the U.N. Security Council on any measure that Israel deems contrary to its national interests, such as resolutions condemning illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank or calling for a ceasefire in Gaza. To protect its own national security, as well as Israel’s, the U.S. must use this leverage, and even the threat of potential U.N. economic and military sanctions, to pressure Israel into cooperating with a peace process. 

While this forceful approach toward an American ally may seem distasteful, the U.S. must prioritize its own national security over the interests of allied nations that actively and continuously sabotage it. Since the start of the Gaza War, direct U.S. support for Israel’s draconian tactics against civilians has dragged down global approval ratings of the U.S., further exacerbating what was already a serious problem of international opinion. Such anti-American sentiment will continue to facilitate a decline in U.S. global influence and hurt U.S. national security. Consequently, despite prior unwillingness, the U.S. must exercise its leverage over Israel to limit hemorrhaging international support.

The exact details of how to establish a functional and independent Palestinian state are numerous and complex. Still, several steps the U.S. must take are already clear. First, the U.S. must force Israel to halt its current campaign in Gaza immediately. The current operation has, according to official estimates, killed over 60,000 Palestinians, 83 percent of whom have been civilians (unofficial estimates put the death toll as high as 186,000). Additionally, according to the United Nations, 92 percent of residential buildings in Gaza have been either damaged or destroyed. Without an immediate cessation of Israel’s military operations, Palestinian statehood is completely unattainable. 

Second, the U.S. must pressure Israel into cracking down on and dismantling illegal settlements in the West Bank, which the Israeli government has encouraged for decades. These settlements, which, are often violently taken from Palestinians in the West Bank in flagrant violation of international law, undermine the West Bank’s stability and integrity, and cannot be allowed to continue. 

Third, the U.S. must force the reform of the Palestinian Authority (P.A.), beginning with the resignation of Mahmoud Abbas, its weak and feckless leader, and facilitate the rise of young, intelligent, and motivated Palestinians to important governing positions. 

(Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas. | SOURCE: Reuters)

Fourth, the U.S. must provide significant economic and military aid to the P.A., allowing it to provide for the everyday needs of Palestinians, and to develop a robust and capable defense force with civilian oversight. Although a Palestinian defense force has not been on the table for previous negotiations, it is nonetheless a necessity for any truly independent state, especially one that faces an extreme threat of political instability, both internally and from its neighbors. 

Aid to the P.A. should be contingent on several factors, including commitments to fight corruption, something that has plagued the P.A. for years. Additionally, the P.A. must commit to cracking down on extremist organizations, such as Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which will only work to sabotage the peace process. 

Finally, the U.S. must impartially facilitate negotiations between the P.A. and Israel. The U.S. should complement its pressure tactics that brought Israel to the table with incentives, such as the resumption of military and economic aid, as well as potential Saudi normalization.

It is foolish to suggest that conflict in the Middle East, one of the most geopolitically complex regions on earth, can be boiled down to a single root cause that, if addressed, would miraculously stabilize the region. However, it is also impossible to ignore the fact that many of the conflict areas that are most relevant to U.S. national security are unmistakably intertwined with the issue of Palestinian statehood. 

Should the U.S. accomplish the hitherto seemingly unachievable feat of establishing a Palestinian state through diplomacy, it would be a significant boon for America’s global reputation. It would significantly undercut American adversaries, such as Hamas and the Houthis, who seek to exploit the suffering of Palestinians for their own political gain. Palestinian statehood would make the Middle East safer, not just for Palestinians who would no longer be subject to violence by Israeli settlers and starvation tactics by the Israeli military, but also for the U.S., which would be confronted with a far less volatile and violent region.

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