India-America: The Greatest Alliance That Never Was
India-America: The Greatest Alliance That Never Was
The recent tension between India and the United States threatens our security and President Trump’s legacy.
(Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, with President Donald Trump, right)| SOURCE: Michael Wyke / AP)
In a speech in June 2023 to the Joint Session of the U.S. Congress, Indian Prime Minister Modi remarked, “There have been many advances in AI — Artificial Intelligence —at the same time, there have been even more momentous developments in another AI: America and India.” He was referring to a potential new chapter in diplomatic relations between the countries, and a mutual desire to deepen ties between the two democracies. It just makes sense that the world’s largest democracy by population and the strongest democracy in world history should be allies working together to promote democratic ideals and counter authoritarianism.
However, since the advent of President Trump’s second term, the diplomatic relations have soured due to several factors. President Trump’s tariff threats and the President’s claims about resolving this year’s military conflict between India and Pakistan have both contributed to this apparent rift.
The tariffs are a strategic error by the Trump administration, posing both economic and geopolitical disadvantages for the United States. And, the president’s insistent claim about resolving the military conflict between India and Pakistan undermines both American foreign policy objectives and its credibility abroad.
With regards to trade policy, President Trump has repeatedly criticized India for their high tariffs, stating that the U.S. would place a 25% tariff on Indian imports in response. President Trump also criticized India for its purchases of Russian oil and military equipment, threatening an additional 25% tariff as penalties for the oil and gas imports. These tariffs would have a significant adverse economic effect for India, with some estimates saying India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth could slow by 0.2 to 0.3% as a result. The president even referred to India’s economy as “dead.”
The problem with President Trump’s tariff threats is that India will not succumb to the threats as easily as other countries that agreed to trade deals with the United States. Prime Minister Modi’s unparalleled political popularity and approval largely stem from his party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), campaigning on promoting Indian sovereignty and self-reliance. India caving into President Trump’s deals would be politically disastrous for the BJP and widely unpopular with voters.
Instead, India would look for new markets to sell its exports, and the best option for the country after the United States would be China. India and China have been attempting to cooperate, primarily driven by both countries serving as leaders of the BRICS organization. BRICS, an economic and strategic partnership formed by eleven countries, is specifically designed to challenge the American-led G7 world order.
Not only would the tariffs move India away from the United States, they could cause India to serve China’s interests. If India starts exporting to China over the United States, Chinese economic growth would accelerate, which is precisely what the U.S. should strive to stop.
Tariffs are not only worrisome economically, but strategically as well. Since the tariffs would likely bring India and China closer together, the U.S. would suffer major setbacks if a military conflict with China arose. The U.S. would not get support from the Indian military; they would not be able to blockade China from the Indian Ocean, and they would not be able to use Indian bases close to the Chinese border.
(Prime Minister Modi, left, with President Xi Jinping of China, right. | SOURCE: Reuters)
When it comes to trade negotiations, the president does have valid grievances with the steep Indian tariffs. Yet, President Trump must realize that getting a “leg up” on India would be disastrous economically and geopolitically: simply empowering China and hindering American power projection in a potential conflict with China. Erasing a trade deficit is not more important than having an economic and political ally that can help the U.S. counter its geopolitical rival.
Tariffs are not the only wedge driving the countries apart. President Trump has repeatedly claimed that he played a significant role in resolving the brief military conflict between India and Pakistan earlier this year. India has refuted this claim, with Prime Minister Modi specifically stating that “no leader in the world asked us to stop Operation Sindoor,” India’s military operations against Pakistan (an obvious pushback against President Trump’s claim about his involvement in brokering the ceasefire).
Just one day after Prime Minister Modi made this comment in the Indian Parliament, President Trump issued the tariff threat against India, while announcing a trade deal with Pakistan for its oil reserves. The main issue here is not necessarily President Trump’s claims about brokering the peace. Still, his retaliatory, egotistic behavior towards India can only serve to alienate the two countries.
The fact that President Trump is willing to expand ties with Pakistan, a country that is known for providing support to terrorist groups, over a comment Prime Minister Modi made in the Indian Parliament, is a horrible mistake. The United States, the world’s shining example of democracy, should never expand ties with a country that has sponsored terrorist groups. Even if such relations are marginally beneficial for economic reasons, the United States can never be seen as a nation that aids or abets state-sponsored terrorism, especially by expanding such ties just to get petty revenge at the world’s largest democracy.
The worst part about this situation is that the Trump administration seems to have forgotten Pakistan’s history of harboring terrorist groups. In an Instagram post, Secretary of State Marco Rubio met a Pakistani diplomat and thanked the diplomat for “Pakistan’s partnership in countering terrorism and preserving regional stability.” This statement could not be further from the truth.
The most obvious example is how Osama bin Laden, America’s most wanted terrorist, hid in Pakistan for years. In fact, bin Laden’s compound was located just a short distance from Pakistan’s military training academy in the city of Abbottabad. Additionally, in “preserving regional stability,” Pakistan is the country that initiated every single war against India since the two countries became independent.
Ultimately, there is clear and convincing evidence that Pakistan is a state-sponsor of terror and has always been the country to initiate conflict in South Asia, despite whatever lies the Pakistani government keeps perpetuating. The problem is, the United States seems to be ignoring this history and believing the Pakistani government, exemplified by their expanded economic ties as a result of India refusing to agree with every narrative President Trump pushes.
The significant geopolitical consequence of the United States' continued partnership with Pakistan would be that India would become increasingly reliant on Russia for its military needs and equipment, a trend that has been evident throughout history. This would only empower the Russian economy because India would buy more Russian military equipment and prevent U.S. military deals with India.
This is problematic because of India’s rapid economic growth, in which the U.S. would lose a lot of potential revenue from aligning with Pakistan, a much poorer and debt-riddled country. Instead, the potential deals America could have had with India would go to Russia, allowing Putin’s regime to continue to hold onto power and threaten Europe’s security.
While the recent developments may seem surprising, to me, an Indian-American who is familiar with the history of Indo-American relations, the recent tensions make complete sense given the contentious nature of the diplomatic ties throughout history. For example, in the 1971 Indo-Pakistani War, the United States allied itself with the Pakistani regime that had committed gross human rights violations in present-day Bangladesh, instead of supporting India, which had committed to ensuring Bangladeshi independence.
In fact, the United States even sent a carrier group into the Bay of Bengal to threaten India. This action prompted India to turn to the Soviet Union, which sent its own warships to the region, causing the U.S. to retreat and ultimately helping India win the war.
(Top Indian and Pakistani generals sign the peace accords ending the 1971 War. | Getty Images / Bettman)
The 1971 War was a significant revelation in Indian diplomacy, because the Indian government and the Indian public realized that they could not trust the United States. The war demonstrated that the world’s so-called democratic leader was willing to support a state that committed a genocide against their own people.
Instead, the American actions in 1971 led to the growth of Indo-Soviet/Russian ties, which still hold strong today and form a major axis that President Trump is trying to counter. Russia has helped India significantly with energy needs, infrastructure developments, and military equipment, which has played a role in helping Putin’s war machine in Ukraine stay afloat.
The U.S. and India, on paper, seem like they should be strong allies, two democratic nations working together to preserve international peace and counter authoritarianism. However, history has shown that America has been willing to support or ignore Pakistan’s genocidal regime and state-sponsored terrorist operations against the world’s largest democracy. This has led to India finding new diplomatic partners such as Russia, which hurts U.S. foreign policy objectives because American geopolitical rivals are benefiting from partnerships with the world’s fourth-largest economy.
The recent tensions perpetuated by President Trump would only repeat this historical trend, with his tariff threats and new deals with Pakistan pushing India further away from the United States, potentially forcing India to expand ties with China and Russia, the two countries that are the most dangerous to American interests.
As an Indian-American, this development hurts, because I would want to see nothing more than my parents’ birthplace and my birthplace work together to make the world a better place. However, this great friendship will never become a reality if President Trump continues to let his ego influence foreign policy decisions. He must recognize the potential economic and military benefits of an alliance with India and learn to accept that other nations will not always comply with his demands.
The opinions expressed in this magazine are the authors’ own and do not reflect the official policy or position of The Spectator, or any students or other contributors associated with the magazine. It is the intention of The Spectator to promote student thought and civil discourse, and it is our hope to maintain that civility in all discussions.